Li Wei: The cotton price is far away from the closing price With the continuous deepening of the European debt crisis, the slowdown in the US economy, the deteriorating macroeconomic environment such as the slowdown in domestic economic growth, and the negative fundamentals of its own, the cotton main contract 1301 fell to 18635 from its lowest value of 18635 in May and fell to nearly 3,000 points. . At present, the new flower is in the growth period, and the collection and storage need to wait until September, the policy of the blank period makes the cotton trend more confusing. In the fundamentals such as macro-blanket, supply-to-demand, and large stocks, what should we do with cotton?

First, the basic situation of cotton:

It is true that the cotton price in the new year is full of uncertainty and it is difficult for cotton prices to rise significantly.

1. Changes in the macro-environment: The current European debt crisis has affected the pulse of commodities, the US economy has experienced sluggish growth, growth in emerging countries has become increasingly difficult, and stimulus policies such as interest rate cuts have continued, and systemic risks have occurred from time to time.

2. Cotton's weak fundamentals constrain cotton prices. According to the latest report released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) for global cotton supply and demand in May, this year's global cotton production is 26.879 million tons, which is 2.1 tons less than the forecast in April; consumption is 23.185 million tons. The reduction was 274,000 tons; the ending stock was 14.606 million, which was increased by 176,000. China's cotton consumption was 9.145 million tons, which was reduced by 108,000 tons; China's import volume was 3.048 million tons in the next year.

3. Downstream cotton demand is low, and the transformation of textile companies is accelerating. The focus of transaction is gradually reduced. Terminal demand cannot be effectively improved in the short term, and the spread between domestic and foreign companies compresses corporate profits.

4. The national collection and storage policy, the new year's 20400 storage and storage price is the biggest hope for the current cotton price, but also the biggest driving force to support the cotton range; However, the State Reserve stock up to 4.43 million tons, but also set an upper limit for the rise of cotton prices .

The national quota policy is also a key factor affecting cotton prices.

4. The price difference between inside and outside cotton is huge. The recent decline in foreign cotton prices is greater than that of the domestic market, and the spread has widened to 5,000 yuan/ton. Whether it is a domestic revaluation or if it has risen abroad, it seems that it is unlikely that the balance will be restored in the short term.

5. The nature of cotton growth is greater, and the natural weather during the key period of future cotton growth is also a major nerve to agitate cotton prices.

Second, positioning: cotton is near the bottom of the policy, but the bottom of the policy still exists the risk of lower risk of cotton 1301 today to 18635, and the new year closing price of 20400 price difference of nearly 2000 points, from a theoretical perspective, the price of cotton 1301 is obvious On the low side, if the new year's collection and storage began, the country's price of 20400 will be closed down and the price will remain at around 19,000, then it will face a lack of goods.

Similarly, if the macro-environment continues to deteriorate, such as the emergence of systematic risk events such as Greece's exit from the euro zone, commodities will certainly decline, and it will not be impossible for cotton to reach new lows. Therefore, the current price of cotton can only be counted as a policy bottom, not necessarily. Will not fall.

We can make an assumption that if the price of the cotton 1301** contract price still stays close to 19,000 on the delivery date, will it really happen? This may not depend on national policy. We know that Article 13 of the Cotton Delivery Rule stipulates that N annual production of sawtooth fine white cotton shall be priced at RMB 4 per ton per calendar day from August 1st of N+1, and shall end on the last working day of March of N+2. This also means that as long as the state is willing, it is entirely possible to make the State Reserve cotton in 2011 into cotton. The result is that the price of 15,000 yuan and the national income of 20,400 yuan will make it impossible to do so.

Therefore, we define that the current cotton contract price is only a policy bottom, and the risk of decline is still there.

Third, the operating strategy:

1. Short positions: The bottom of the search range, the lower edge of the multi-test orders based on the current cotton ** contract volume concentrated in 1209,1301,1305, only the cotton 1301 is completely in the national storage period, cotton 1209 and cotton 1305 there is a policy risk Therefore, the preferred cotton 1301 contract is operated.

We assume that the lowest price of cotton 1301 is 18635, which is the bottom of cotton's decline. To be more precise, we consider the 18500-18700 range as the bottom of the cotton tentatively, and then try more based on its own bearing capacity and risk positions. For example, take 1/4 of the positions in the cotton 18600 price more than a single intervention, if the cotton price break below 18500 stop loss, the trend can be added upstream; of course, some people think that the cotton is unlikely to go low, may be near 18800 or even more This is feasible, and the key is stop loss and position control.

2. The quilt cover is oversupplied: technical analysis is the main reason, and the position is adjusted reasonably. Since the price of cotton dropped to the closing price last year, it rebounded quickly and opened a wave of rising prices. This year's cotton price not only failed to hold, but also fell below the spread. Nearly 3,000 points! Many investors, especially those engaged in cotton processing companies, have a firm belief in the country's purchasing and storage prices. As a result, a large number of investors have cotton quilts, which are less than 20,000, and are close to 20400. At 21500. Although the possibility of returning the storage price to the month of cotton price delivery is very high, individual investors should pay attention to the risk aversion of the delivery month, and the position cannot be reached in the delivery month. During this period, items such as moving positions will definitely increase the cost.

The quilt cover is often full, and the result is not enough, and the current price of cotton is also at a loss. There is little change in the fundamentals of cotton in the short term. According to technical analysis, the rebound will be lightened up, and some positions will be set aside to respond flexibly to cotton prices. A small amount of locks may be needed if necessary.

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